Presidential Prediction

OK...this is really an unpredictable race, but it could be fun to try. Plus, you could make a drinking game out of it.

Every time I've tried this in the past, I've overestimated in favor of the Republican. Maybe it's because I'm a little biased, I don't know.

Here it is: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, others 2%. Bush takes 317 electoral votes, Kerry wins 221.

This assumes Bush wins in the "battlegrounds" of Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, West Virginia, Florida, and Hawaii. Given the Dems proclivity for voter fraud, I'm probably being too optimistic for Bush again, but we'll see. Now, who wants to come up with the drinking game rules??