Poll: 68% of Alabamians Say they Support Constitutional Convention

Or do they? There are several reasons to question whether the results of a new poll on Alabamians' attitudes about the state constitution are accurate. Here are a few things to think about:

1. Consider the source. The poll was conducted by the Capital Survey Research Center, the polling division of the Alabama Education Association. The AEA is one of the state's chief proponents of constitution reform.

2. What do the numbers really say? From that Birmingham News article:

The survey of 863 registered and likely Alabama voters conducted July 12-21 revealed that 19 percent believe the present constitution adequately meets the state's needs, while 45 percent said it should be revised and an additional 25 percent said a new constitution is needed...

When asked who they would trust to write a new constitution, 62 percent of those surveyed chose a constitutional convention and 16 percent favored the Alabama Legislature. On whether to call a convention to draft a new constitution, 68 percent said they would vote for it and 18 percent said they would vote against it.

...voters were asked whether they would be willing to vote against all constitutional amendments offered by the Legislature in the future until a convention were convened. Of those surveyed, 44 percent said they would support a "just vote no" process, while 34 percent said they would oppose such a process.

These reported numbers look suspicious. First, the largest number of those surveyed (45%) answered that they believe the constitution needs to be revised, but not rewritten; only 25% believe that a complete rewrite is needed.

But, a whopping 68% of respondents said that they would vote to call a constitutional convention. That number is only 2 percentage points short of the total number who said that the constitution should be either revised or rewritten (45% + 25% = 70%.) So, are we to assume that practically everyone who supports revising or rewriting also supports calling a convention? I guess that's possible, but it seems highly unlikely.

It looks like we need to know the exact questions that were asked in order to figure out what's going on here. Unfortunately, the News didn't provide that information, and I haven't been able to find it anywhere online as of yet.

3. How were the questions phrased? It is well-known that pollsters often manipulate questions and limit available answers in order to produce desired results. The reasons for this are pretty obvious. Either the pollster or a client has a particular agenda, and is aware that the news media loves to report polls, because they provide quick, easy space-fillers for lazy reporters on slow news days - not to mention the fact that they may support a news organization's own editorial policies.

So, is that what happened here? Maybe or maybe not, but the track record of the AEA's polling organization isn't so good in this regard.

Just last week, they released another poll purporting to show that Alabamians favored a moratorium on the death penalty. Now, if there's one thing Alabamians agree on, it's that murderers should be executed even more often than they are now. Indeed, I'd bet that a significant number of my fellow Alabamians would support the return of public hangings. So, the idea that a majority would support a death penalty moratorium is almost beyond belief. Well, it turns out that that poll was requested by an organization opposed to the death penalty, who promptly expressed its appreciation to the AEA's Capital Survey Research Center for conducting the poll.

Sounds fishy, huh? I thought so, too, and the results of that poll be the subject of my next post.