Mars is heating up

From the latest Mars Global Surveyor press release:

...for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress.

An animation of Mars's shrinking south polar cap is accompanied by this caption:

The observations made by Mars Orbiter Camera in 2001, during the first part of the extended mission, showed that the scarps and pit walls of the south polar cap had retreated at an average rate of about 3 meters (10 feet) since 1999. In other words, they were retreating 3 meters per Mars year (and, of course, most of that retreat takes place during the summer). In some places on the cap, the scarps retreat less than 3 meters a Mars year, and in others it can retreat as much as 8 meters (26 feet) per martian year.

Of the two volatile materials one is likely to find in a frozen state on Mars -- water and carbon dioxide -- it is carbon dioxide that is volatile enough to permit scarp retreat rates like those observed by the Mars Orbiter Camera.

Over time, south polar pits merge to become plains, mesas turn into buttes, and buttes vanish forever. Since 2001, two additional Mars years have elapsed. A scientific benefit of having a long extended mission for Mars Global Surveyor has been the opportunity to document how the polar cap is changing each year.

Four images are shown here, plus an animation at left presenting the four frames in sequence. The location is near 86.3 degrees south latitude, 49.4 degrees west longitude, and the images show the same portion of the south polar residual cap as it appeared in 1999, 2001, 2003, and 2005. Comparing the images or viewing the animation makes it evident that the landscape of the south polar cap has been changing rapidly over the past four martian years.

Each year that Mars Global Surveyor has been in orbit, the landforms of the south polar residual cap have gotten smaller, and the carbon dioxide removed from the cap has not been re-deposited. The implication is that Mars presently has a warm (and possibly warming) climate, with new carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere every year. The other implication is that, at some time in the not-too-distant past, the planet had a colder climate, so that the layers of carbon dioxide could be deposited in the first place. If one takes the rate of scarp retreat and projects it backwards to fill in all of the pits and troughs with the carbon dioxide that has been removed from them, one finds that the colder climate might only have occurred a few centuries to a few tens of thousands of years ago. This kind of time scale is not unlike that of the climate changes that have been recorded on Earth, including the Ice Ages and the smaller fluctuations that have occurred since the last Ice Age (e.g., the "Little Ice Age" of the mid-14th through mid-19th centuries).

Must be all those damned Martian SUV's.